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Nicolas Darvas Box Trading Secrets

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Rumours overheard today and days ago??!!

Overheard that GS DOWN Keppel Corp and Guccoland target price (TP),
Keppel Corp got dropped to $13, and Gucco dropped to $2.50.
CLSA follow suit and DOWN SGX and Capitacommercial Trust too,
SGX got downgraded to Underperform and become a SELL now.
Capita TP reduced to $2.29.

UBS said in their reports that they downgraded both K-Reit and Macquarie Prime Reit
to SELL, K-Reit TP become $0.93, and Prime Reit become $0.95
By the way, Macquarie also said K-reit need to slim down,
and the TP at $1.25

Citi is busier in their reports, our 3 local banks all got a SELL rating,
DBS TP at $16.75, UOB at $17.60, the smaller OCBC at $7.60
- Frankly, if they dropped further, it will be a great bargain,
because as and when the economy recovers, the banks share
will lead the charge, and the surge will be Fast and Furious.

Other stories include CapitaMall Trust become a BUY now with TP at $3.30,
but Raffles Edu got downgraded to HOLD with TP at $0.95
- I believe Raffles Edu is still in an aggressive M&A move,
they are hungry to continue expanding their student
and campus' reach, but their main issue is they need$$$,
and that will mean either incurring more debts, or as usual,
issuing new shares.
I wonder why they don't want to try to sell to OHL,
if he is in, then its share price and future will look
rosier.
Just a wild wishful thought on my side.

Big Brother Lehman also continue the cutting trend, and
this time is our beloved 2 telcos.
Starhub TP is at $3.08, and Singtel become a Equalweight now.
- Incidentally if you have read some FA books, the rating
of Equalweight is equivalent to a SELL rating,
just at a nicer-phrased word.


On a lesser note, DB said the Property company WingTai is expensive now,
so need to put the TP at $1.45 now.
- I don't really know about the stock, but I know WingTai's property
project's standard and class. This is just my view and not an advertisement!
HaHe....
ML also downgraded City Dev to Neutral.
- I know of an old-friend who is a die-hard supporter of
City Dev, not the properties, but its shares. I better ask him
how many shares he has accumulated all this years,
maybe he has become a Substantial Shareholder now??!! OMG!!

Jap Nomura securities also join in the reports and downgraded Noble
to a not-so noble TP of $2.29
-I consider Noble as a mid-cap, in the same category as Olam and
Straits Asia, and I strongly they will never become a small-cap
again even if the market keep falling down the cliff.
Frankly, the chances of them becoming a big-cap when
the market recovers is higher than it tumble down to
the hard floor.

Looking at all these CUT and Downgrade reports,
I have only one thing in my mind...........
It's time for me to get a hairCUT, and "Downgrade"
my spending on certain brands of products.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Rumours overheard today 08082008!! HUAT!!

Today number 1 rumour got to be on our Dearest DBS who just reported result:
CS look like not so happy with DBS result and CUT the TP to $20.50 and
downgrade to UNDERPERFORM,
MS follows the same way and also CUT the TP to a terribly-low $15.50 (OMG!!)
and downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT (better put on more weights, haha),
Citi has the same view and also slim the TP to $20.85, but said still maintain BUY,
BNP however said," You guys are wrong!!" It UP the rating to BUY and give
a TP of $22.70!

Look like our Dearest DBS has to wake up its idea and buck up
to win back more support!

UBS target-on NOL become $2.20, and same CUT to a SELL rating.
(Look like NOL will become Number-One-Loser???)

Citi is always awake, it don't like to sleep,
so it say OCBC also don't sleep too much now that
it has been CUT to SELL and only TP $8.35 now.
JPM also said "You are Right!" TP become $8.00, but
give you a NEUTRAL rating first.

CS said that Starhub is only worth the TP of $2.55, and
can only achieve a UNDERPERFORM rating.
(Well, look like SH can/may increase the Premier League
fee to boost up its margin, OMG, please don't do so!!)

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Rumours overheard today 7 Aug

Overheard that:
Citi CUT China Sky Target Price to $1.03 but still is a BUY rating,
Citi also CUT Starhub TP to $3.05 but same at a BUY rating.
Macquarie rate Keppel Corp at Outperform, but TP become $13
CS CUT Semb Corp TP to $5.50, but still is a BUY rating
Daiwa CUT UOB to $21.35, rating become HOLD
JPM quite busy today, CUT Starhub TP to $3.50, CUT Semb Coro to $5.50,
but both still at OVERWEIGHT rating

Monday, August 4, 2008

Rumours overheard today 4Aug

Now being the reporting season, there are lots of
rumours in the air, so I just grab some and
share it here.

Overheard that:
CS rate Capitaland at HOLD but reduce Target Price (TP) to $5.16
GS said that Wilmar is still good to BUY , TP raised 20cts to $6.20
but GS cut Capitaland by 40cts to $6.40.
UBS agreed with GS, and also cut TP to $7, although still said worth
a BUY rating.
Citi downgraded both Jardine Matheson and Strategic.
(I like this 2 stocks, but because of current lousy sentiment,
look like I can get them cheaper)

Sunday, August 3, 2008

The Blog is Back with Rumours.....

Hi all,

After taking a good break of a few weeks, the blog will be back again.
But this time, I will not post any "official" news or posting from
somewhere. I can only tell you "rumours" that I have overheard
from somewhere.
Take note that it might be a TRUE "rumour" or it might be
as the name suggest, just a MERE "rumour".

Ok, keep a look-out of rumours coming your way.
Hope to see more support from readers as well.

Huat is coming your way......

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Discontinuing Posting of Dow Jones Newswire

Discontinuing Posting of Dow Jones Newswire
2 July 2008


Dear all,

I have been instructed and "advised" to stop my DJ news
posting, which I have accepted so as not to face any future
inevitable "misfortune".


I am waiting for further instructions whether I need
to remove or delete all past news posting as well.
If you never see any news posting when you read this message,
then they are gone from my blog forever.

Edited: I have removed the posting "as per request" from BB. :-(

I was hoping that the small retailers can read up
on some good write-up and stock recommendation
from a leading and trusted provider, but nevertheless
it is against the rights.
I simply can't fight the BBs' will and legal power.

I will decide what I will post at my future blog in a few days time.
Meanwhile, be careful with your trading, and read up
from other sources for some good research write-up,
and reports.

If you want to email me to "console" me, or wish
to lend me a shoulder, I will be glad to hear from you,
small, powerless, resilient retailers.
Huat!!!

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